Latest MiG-29 version, OVT.I've been thinking about this MiG-29 deal which seems inevitable now, and looks like would happen within weeks considering the situation. If the reports I hear are correct, the GoSL is to purchase upto 4 MiG-29 Fulcrum jets along with a lease option of a trainer. Thinking of the cost of a Fulcrum which is around US$15-20 million, this is no bullock-cart purchase. This purchase is vital to national security, and air defence fighters and associated weaponry cost. A lot. And currently I don't think US$s is the thing SL has got most of. That exactly is why the AF people should have spent several nights up analyzing all options before stumbling upon this. I hope they did so.
I'm not against the MiG-29 as a jet. It's an awesome piece of military jet. But the thing is MiG's have not been put against this kind of challenge anywhere in the world yet. Actually, NO Fulcrum has shot down another aircraft in anger for all these years [service entry 1983], but it's considerable that 12 MiG-29's have been so far shot down in various theaters [by F-15s and 16s, most]. Soundbite for people who chant about it's superiority. We can't afford to test aircraft, but that's only one point of the story.
If I were given the chance, what I would spend money mainly on is, getting the thing done with available assets and very importantly, keeping the aircraft at at least 10-15 minute high alert status. This costs serious money. And that was what we didn't have or the last four times we got bombed. Keep aside air-to-air combat, we couldn't scramble even a kite atleast to track down the terrorist aircrafts' operating bases. And I'm serious when talking about 'available assets'. We already have aircraft with more-than enough performance to counter the threat posed. I would see about upgrading Kfirs and F-7's Since we're short of time as well, being able to field the weapons fast is VERY important. And we've been flying these jets for ages. Kfirs are combat proven and have confirmed arial kills to their credit in South American hands. Our pilots know how to waltz them upstairs, and our engineering wings know how to maintain them. By talking with Pakistan about F-7's and Israel Aircraft Industries about the Kfir, we could've got it done. Was that an option?, or was that simply wasn't cause it wouldn't pour commissions into someone's pocket? Now this advantage can't be won with a completely new and sophisticated type like Fulcrum without putting a lot of cash and mistakes down the drain. And for crying out loud, WE NEED THAT CASH and we can't afford MISTAKES!!
There's one issue though. It might prove difficult, or almost impossible to use guns and heat homing missiles against Tiger aircraft respectively because they operate very close to ground at night at very low speeds and the thermal signature of a light aircraft piston engine is very low. The missile would be VERY confused if they use any kind of IR countermeasures. So some kind of radar-guided weaponry is required. In this sense the Fulcrum has got what the doctor ordered. But I think the best option we'd have bought is upgrading the Kfirs. It could've been cheaper still even we bought four dedicatedly air-to air configured Kfirs from IAI, who would've gotten it done easily [I wonder whether the Palestine-keen Mahinda administration got the Israelis sour as well]. If someone thought Kfirs and F-7 fleets were aging, why not opt for less sophisticated, low-cost and to-the-point Chinese defence interceptors like JF-17 of JHC-7 Flying Leopard? The rest of the money can be well spent on better ground-based radar-aided fire control systems and most importantly, keeping the bought jets in at least a 10-minute scramble-ready status.
All in all, what can be seen is that the MiG deal is just overweight. I just wonder how long we'd be able to keep them operational. Remember Bangladesh buying Sukhois [-24s I guess]? Perhaps the Tigers would wait till we run about mad and run out of money, and then resume their night visits. And sensing the AF disregarded the well-valued option of upgrading/buying already combat proven and familiar Kfirs, perhaps there's a big under-hand deal here as well, as the case was for all military deals in the past. I don't think under-hand, big-commission deals are easy if you deal straight with Israel Aircraft Industries or Chinese state aircraft corporations.
US$ 80 million. Better used mending Colombo's overflowing gutter system than wasted on unmanageable ultra-sophisticated Fulcrums. And what about the peace process now? Are we going to finish this by war, or what? Mahinda, PLEASE stop and think if you're for the country truly.
I'm not against the MiG-29 as a jet. It's an awesome piece of military jet. But the thing is MiG's have not been put against this kind of challenge anywhere in the world yet. Actually, NO Fulcrum has shot down another aircraft in anger for all these years [service entry 1983], but it's considerable that 12 MiG-29's have been so far shot down in various theaters [by F-15s and 16s, most]. Soundbite for people who chant about it's superiority. We can't afford to test aircraft, but that's only one point of the story.
If I were given the chance, what I would spend money mainly on is, getting the thing done with available assets and very importantly, keeping the aircraft at at least 10-15 minute high alert status. This costs serious money. And that was what we didn't have or the last four times we got bombed. Keep aside air-to-air combat, we couldn't scramble even a kite atleast to track down the terrorist aircrafts' operating bases. And I'm serious when talking about 'available assets'. We already have aircraft with more-than enough performance to counter the threat posed. I would see about upgrading Kfirs and F-7's Since we're short of time as well, being able to field the weapons fast is VERY important. And we've been flying these jets for ages. Kfirs are combat proven and have confirmed arial kills to their credit in South American hands. Our pilots know how to waltz them upstairs, and our engineering wings know how to maintain them. By talking with Pakistan about F-7's and Israel Aircraft Industries about the Kfir, we could've got it done. Was that an option?, or was that simply wasn't cause it wouldn't pour commissions into someone's pocket? Now this advantage can't be won with a completely new and sophisticated type like Fulcrum without putting a lot of cash and mistakes down the drain. And for crying out loud, WE NEED THAT CASH and we can't afford MISTAKES!!
There's one issue though. It might prove difficult, or almost impossible to use guns and heat homing missiles against Tiger aircraft respectively because they operate very close to ground at night at very low speeds and the thermal signature of a light aircraft piston engine is very low. The missile would be VERY confused if they use any kind of IR countermeasures. So some kind of radar-guided weaponry is required. In this sense the Fulcrum has got what the doctor ordered. But I think the best option we'd have bought is upgrading the Kfirs. It could've been cheaper still even we bought four dedicatedly air-to air configured Kfirs from IAI, who would've gotten it done easily [I wonder whether the Palestine-keen Mahinda administration got the Israelis sour as well]. If someone thought Kfirs and F-7 fleets were aging, why not opt for less sophisticated, low-cost and to-the-point Chinese defence interceptors like JF-17 of JHC-7 Flying Leopard? The rest of the money can be well spent on better ground-based radar-aided fire control systems and most importantly, keeping the bought jets in at least a 10-minute scramble-ready status.
All in all, what can be seen is that the MiG deal is just overweight. I just wonder how long we'd be able to keep them operational. Remember Bangladesh buying Sukhois [-24s I guess]? Perhaps the Tigers would wait till we run about mad and run out of money, and then resume their night visits. And sensing the AF disregarded the well-valued option of upgrading/buying already combat proven and familiar Kfirs, perhaps there's a big under-hand deal here as well, as the case was for all military deals in the past. I don't think under-hand, big-commission deals are easy if you deal straight with Israel Aircraft Industries or Chinese state aircraft corporations.
US$ 80 million. Better used mending Colombo's overflowing gutter system than wasted on unmanageable ultra-sophisticated Fulcrums. And what about the peace process now? Are we going to finish this by war, or what? Mahinda, PLEASE stop and think if you're for the country truly.
5 comments:
Mahinda needs money to educate his son in UK. The Navy scholarship is not enough.
There's a similar topic on Dragon of Eden. The post is pro MiG29. I'm not expert but I agree with you.
The important fact should be that there has to be an air defence system - not just an expensive weapon. So hopefully there's something somewhere that will give enough of a warning to get at least US$15-20 million hope off the ground to take out the attacker.
Fact it the choice is beyond us - and in the paws of people who will make killing ($$$) what ever happens.
It hard being hopeful but that's all we can really do.
Kfirs are way past their use by date. MiG 29s are capable of dropping cluster bombs and could later be upgraded to carry out precision ground attacks thus replacing the Kfirs.
The MiG deal seems to be very transparent. I don't think there is any truth to these malicious rumours of corruption.
Can we afford it? Certainly. We've got a billion dollar+ defence budget and this is 80 million well spent.
The "piece" process? There isn't one. They are fighting to win the war, and I believe they can.
For the record Sri Lanka's entire GDP is about US$23 Billion. Defence spending will is expected got up to about US$2 Billion+(assuming it still take Rs100+ to buy a dollar).
But the issue is not the cost or the capabilities of the MiG29.
The critical issue is that the Migs must be part of an air defence SYSTEM. Not an isolated (expensive)component. That system needs a functional early warning system - essentially an effective radar of some type. All plugged into a procedure to scramble & intercept the attacker.
4 years after the tigers built a 1km+ airstrip, I hope the powers that be figure out such a system. The lack of one made a military insignificant raid into a propaganda coup for the LTTE.
The question is whether the early warning (preventive) component of the system will be compromised to buy and maintain another (reactive) component - to the extent that the whole system (if there is one) might not work?
Essentially without an integrated air defence process, we are buying some expensive targets.
But of course there's really nothing to do but hope for the best. And hope is very very hard for cynics.
thanks for the analytical comment, cerno.
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